Faced with the intransigence of Russia on the Syrian issue, Westerners show their firmness, but seem to be moving towards a compromise that allows everyone not perdrer face.
The Iran stole the show on the Syrian crisis, saying the West continue to fight hard to wrest the Russians a resolution containing a clear threat of use of force in Syria . Behind the rhetoric of firmness, it is questionable whether the United States, France and Britain are rather trying to find a cover for them to save face against a Russia that will not let go of one inch.
Laurent Fabius reiterated on Monday that there was no question of giving in Chapter VII. This would automatically authorize the use of force against Assad if it deviated from its commitments to chemical weapons. The head of French diplomacy was considered possible agreement with Russia, noting that “writing” of the resolution he had proposed was the exact reversal of the agreement signed in Geneva between Americans and Russians on August 30, which mentioned in Chapter VII .
This proactive approach leaves open a real question: why Russia would sell it, then blocks any military intervention in a sovereign country is a priority? Moscow Why would he mention a Chapter VII resolution since the initiative seeks to prevent the use of force in Syria? The real worry Lavrov is “the risk of chaos,” says Fabius, a way of saying that the Russians have no interest in that their initiative will fail and will have to make concessions. Russia is committed and is therefore bound to lead to save face.
But is that really true? This Sunday, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabov, is concerned about the persistence of the U.S. military threat action. The negotiations are not going well, has he said, reiterating that Moscow would never accept a system of automatic sanctions. “The Russians lay mines everywhere,” notes does in the entourage of Francois Hollande. “They told us that even if Bashar showed them a sheet signed by him to admit he is the author of chemical attack, they do not change their position”, says a Western diplomat.
To “dilute” any agreement, Russia put on the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) , who has the responsibility to report back if Damascus derogated from its obligations. The Council’s role in this organization, strong in 41 countries including many non-aligned, allow Moscow to delay.
The “compromise” now considered tantamount to “mention” in the resolution under Chapter VII as a kind of footnote page. In his speech at the podium of the UN, Obama did not even quoted, merely claiming a resolution “firm with consequences” for Assad. A system of “double trigger” would bring them back to the Security Council that a new resolution would be required. This is the mechanism of the Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, system of automatic sanctions. This would create an “atmosphere Chapter VII,” but Russia preserve its veto power and flexibility. For Americans like the French, as a compromise hide a real renunciation.
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